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It’s a very Merry Christmas in Cincy

Posted on December 24th, 2005 in agony of being a bengals fan by Niko || 12 Comments

The Bills? The Bills? Good lord. Too angry to write coherently. Merry Christmas, you bastards.

All I Want for Christmas is a #2 Seed

Posted on December 20th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || 87 Comments

The sheet doesn’t lie, folks. The Bengals are the 2005 AFC North Champions. We’re going to the Playoffs for the first time in 14 years.

HOLY SHIT!

…

Give me a minute.

…

Ok, I’m better.

We know the postseason is assured, and with that comes at least one Playoff home game. But can the Bengals get that elusive first round bye? The #1 seed is out of reach, even if the now-once-defeated Colts put up a bagel in the win column over the final two weeks of the season. The #2 seed however, is within our grasp if Denver decides to cooperate.

The Broncos have the tiebreaker on the Bengals, so if we are to jump one spot from the third position Denver needs to lose a game. Should they drop one, and the Bengals win out, then we’ll get the bye. The scenarios go like this:

If Denver goes 2-0 over the final two weeks: The Broncos are the #2 seed regardless of what Cincinnati does.
If Denver goes 1-1 over the final two weeks: The Bengals are the #2 seed if they go 2-0 over those same two weeks.
If Denver goes 0-2 over the final two weeks: The Bengals are the #2 seed if they go at least 1-1 over the last two weeks.

The possible outcomes are pretty simple, and the schedule works out about as well as we could hope. Both the Bengals and Broncos have what should be a gimmie next week, followed by a tough game on the road to close out the season. It is not inconceivable that Cincinnati could pull this off.

Buffalo is on tap for us in the final home game of the season. We should win this one easily. Denver, meanwhile, has Oakland at home, and there is no reason to think the Broncos won’t win that game. The last week of the season is when things get interesting, and it’s all the AFC West’s fault.

As I said before, there is really only one Playoff spot up for grabs. New England has clenched their division, and their closest competitor, Miami, is at .500. We’ve got the AFC North wrapped up, and second place Pittsburgh stands at 9-5 fighting for a Wild Card. The Colts have the #1 seed locked up in their section of the AFC.

Jacksonville is 10-4 with Houston and Tennessee left to go. It will take an act of God or Jack Del Rio resting his players for them not the end the year 12-4. That’s the first Wild Card slot already filled. There is one division crown at least mathematically still available, but if Denver gets by Oakland then there isn’t a formula in the world that will put them behind San Diego or Kansas City. So in reality there is just that last Wild Card invitation up in the air.

Pittsburgh right now has a death grip on that final Playoff birth. It only takes a win against Cleveland and a follow-up victory over Detroit and the Steelers get in. Should they stumble however, things get interesting.

Starting at the back of the pack, Kansas City is 8-6 and cannot get in without help - a lot of help. For the Chiefs to make the Playoffs the following scenario must unfold:

Kansas City must end the year 2-0 for an overall record of 10-6.
San Diego must end the year 0-2. Should San Diego lose to Kansas City and then win against Denver, the Chargers hold the common opponents tiebreaker against the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh must go 0-2 over the final two weeks.-OR-
Pittsburgh must lose to Cleveland next week if they go 1-1 over Weeks 16 and 17. If they beat Cleveland then they will hold the division record tiebreaker over Kansas City. A loss against the Browns forces the tiebreaker for the Wild Card to go to strength of victory.

I think it’s safe to say that Kansas City is eliminated, but should Pittsburgh stumble and Kansas City get by San Diego, the Chiefs will have a must-win game at home against Cincinnati. As Panzer said below, they’ll be out of for blood.

San Diego on the other hand, has two ways into the postseason. First, they still have that outside shot at the AFC West title. To get the crown three things must happen:

Denver must lose to Oakland this week.
San Diego must beat Kansas City this week.
Denver must lose to San Diego at San Diego the final week of the season.

If those three things come to pass then San Diego will be the AFC West champion by virtue of the division record tiebreaker. If you’re looking for a game of the week the final Sunday of the season, think about this: Should Denver lose to Oakland this week and San Diego should get by Kansas City, then the Week 17 game of Broncos at Chargers will be for the AFC West title. If that isn’t enough drama, realize that the winner will go on to the Playoffs - while the loser will likely go home (assuming that Pittsburgh runs the table as we all expect).

The only other way San Diego plays in January is for Pittburgh to go 1-1 to end the year. If the Steelers go at best 1-1, and the Chargers finish 2-0, then San Diego is in with the final Wild Card. Pittsburgh holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, so San Diego can only make the Playoffs with a better overall record. There isn’t any way around it for the Chargers.

The AFC Playoff race isn’t over yet, and there is still a chance for Cincinnati to get that precious bye week. To be continued this week…

In retrospect

Posted on December 19th, 2005 in winning by panzer || 147 Comments

Maybe I do worry too much, but it’s not like the Lions and their lack of fans are any source of competition. The Bengals easily trounced them to clinch the AFC north title. Yes, yes - I was wrong.

However, since the name of this site is gobengalssuperbowl.com and not gobengalsafcnorthtitle.com, I will continue to worry and fret about the next two games. While Buffalo may not be a problem, Kansas City will be out for blood in their last game, especially if they beat San Diego next week. With the possibility of a bye on the line, the Bengals will need to play perfectly for the rest of the season.

Detroit Choke City?

Posted on December 16th, 2005 in Uncategorized by panzer || 2 Comments

I know, I know, I shouldn’t be worried about the Bengals next game versus the Lions. The Bengals should blow the Lions out of the water.

Still I can’t get rid of this nagging sense of doubt, deep in my stomach. The Lions haven’t beat a winning team this season (they won twice at Green Bay, once at Baltimore, and once at Arizona) but that does not mean they cannot play the role of spoiler. They have a load of younh talent and in the past their QB Garcia has proved very capable of winning despite the odds. Also, worse teams have certainly beaten on better teams in the past.

This is the NFL - any given Sunday and all that rot.

There’s no denying that Bengals need to win this game to cement their hold on the division. Like they needed to win the previous Browns game… which they barely did. Buffalo and KC are both much better teams, like how Detroit is better than Cleveland, and they are likely to put up a fight. Additionally, it’s highly unlikely that the Stillers will lose any of their next three games (Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit).

So it’s either win here or else - and it’s that else which is giving the sense of doubt. Let’s just say I’m not betting on them to cover the spread.

Mission Accomplished (So Far)

Posted on December 6th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || 9 Comments

So the first hurdle on the way to an AFC North Championship has been overcome by beating the Steelers.

I want to be as happy and sure as my colleague Panzer is below, but I’m not ready to go there at the moment. As much as my overly analytical mind sees that the path to a division crown is relatively easy from here on out, the bitter Bengals fan inside me who has endured 14 years of misery won’t allow happiness just yet. I can’t let my hopes swell too much until first place is a mathematical reality.

I believe we’re going to do it, but I’m not ready to accept that conclusion just yet.

Congratulations, Bengals

Posted on December 4th, 2005 in winning by panzer || 143 Comments

The Cincinnati Bengals are going to win the AFC north division!

[mood:elated]
[music:fear da tigers ]

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