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A Fluke, a Coincidence, and a Trend

Posted on September 29th, 2005 in the defense sucks by JANET || 76 Comments

So now 2-0 has become 3-0 and the question still remains: How good are we?

I think it’s a safe bet to say that the offense is in near perfect shape. After only being able to capitalize on just a pair of Kyle Orton’s four interceptions in the first half, the offense managed to right itself in the second putting the ball into the endzone twice. Chad Johnson has proved to be one of the NFL’s premier receivers, and Carson Palmer continues to impress all onlookers with his growth in the QB position.

Flipping over to the defense, we’ve got to ask ourselves a serious question. Namely: Have we played against offenses that are just that terrible, or is our defense instead rising up to the challenge? I think we can all agree that the scoring capability of the Browns, Vikings, and Bears isn’t quite up to par in this young season so far. Scoring however, is not the big question I have regarding the Bengal defense.

What has me wondering isn’t the lack of points by our opponents, but the incredible number of turnovers being generated by Marvin’s D. Week 1 the Browns committed three as Dilfer tossed a pair of picks and lost a fumble. This could rightly be considered a fluke playing against a subpar team such as Cleveland.

Week 2 saw Minnesota come to town, and Daunte Culpepper continued the trend he had set the week before. By then end of the game he had connected with five Bengal defenders (three of those caught by Deltha O’Neal) while Michael Bennett had dropped a pair of his own on the turf. Combined there were seven turnovers to give the Bengals a +6 ratio for the game. This event, especially considering Culpepper’s previous exploits this year, could have merely been a coincidence.

Then we arrive at last Sunday’s game in Chicago. Orton did his best Culpepper impersonation by tossing five interceptions himself while wide receiver Bobby Wade fumbled three times, one of which was recovered by Cincinnati. That’s six on the day which gave the Bengals a +4 ratio after taking away the two lost fumbles split between Houshmandzadeh and Chris Perry. Take that stat, together with the previous weeks, and you can’t help but think that maybe we’re starting to see a trend develop.

I want to tell you that our defense is just that good at causing the opposing offense to cough it up three, six, or even seven times a game. I really do. Thinking about each game however, I’m forced to step away from that ledge and rethink my position.

Cleveland would seem to support the argument I want to make, because in the two weeks subsequent to their Bengal bitch slap they haven’t turned the ball over once. Neither the Packers nor Colts could get one from the Browns, which honestly surprised me. Cleveland has fumbled a couple of times, but in each case a Brown fell on it to retain possession.

I cannot in good conscience however, make the case that the Bengal defense and that defense alone was responsible for the Viking ship that split and sank at Paul Brown in Week 2. Watching highlights and subsequent game film breakdowns showed beyond any doubt that Culpepper was missing wide open receiver after wide open receiver. At game time some of the sacks the Cincinnati defense pulled off appeared to be coverage sacks, with Culpepper unable to find anyone to throw the ball to. A second look down the field however, revealed serious gaps in the secondary that he simply couldn’t exploit. Apparently not having Randy Moss to look for had Daunte more rattled then he or the Vikings would like to admit.

Likewise I’m unable to put forward any kind of serious case that Kyle Orton was the victim of a swarming and tenacious defense that had him confused and shaken. Actually it appeared to be true that Orton was in over his head last Sunday, but that isn’t surprising given that he is a rookie starting only his third game in the NFL. Add to that the fact that he wasn’t even supposed to be playing this year, instead backing up the once again injured Rex Grossman, and his awful play comes in to perspective. I think we all remember some of the horrendously bad decisions our own C. Palmer made at the beginning of last year.

So in one out of the three games this year you could take the position that our defense managed to get in the heads of the other team’s offense and take some possessions away from them. But then again you have to wonder, can lightning strike three times in a row? Two picks, followed by five picks, and then caboosed by five more interceptions makes you start to consider the possibilities, however.

We’ve had our fluke, the coincidence, and quite possibly a trend. The question is then, are we going to start to see a pattern this week against Houston? And if we do, does it mean anything given that it’s the perennially below average Texans?

As I said in my last post, we really won’t know anything for sure until Week 5 at Jacksonville.

A Bengals History Lesson

Posted on September 27th, 2005 in agony of being a bengals fan by Niko || 21 Comments

When it comes to the Bengals, I’m all about the heartbreak and the tortured agony that comes with the everyday existence of being a fan. I’ve been a Bengals fan for almost 30 years. And for almost 30 years I’ve been consistently disappointed. That’s why I’m not getting my hopes up despite the team’s recent success. We’re only on week four now and if there’s anything that Bengals history has taught us it’s that there’s still plenty of time left in the season for failure and abject misery.

Don’t believe me? Let’s look through the looking glass and reflect upon 25 years of Bengals football…

1975
Gut-wrenching, three point loss to Oakland at the AFC divisional game. This is where the hurting begins.

1976
Goodbye, Paul Brown. No playoffs.

1977
The Bengals graciously allow the Oilers a win. No playoffs.

1978
The team lost the first eight games of the season. Surprisingly, no playoffs followed.

1979
See above (this will start to get repetitive).

1980
No playoffs.

1981
Goddamn Joe Montana.

1982
A good season! Well, everyone gets lucky sometimes. Fortunately the Jets were there to kick ass and return things to as they were.

1983-1987
Let’s not even talk about these years.

1988
GodDAMN Joe Montana. FUCK YOU.
1989
Back to normal! No playoffs.

1990
Whupped by the Raiders in the AFC divisional game, a beating which is still felt to this very day.

1991
Paul Brown dies and his ghost begins to haunt team. No playoffs.

1992
No playoffs.

1993
No playoffs.

1994
First emergence of Jeff Blake, future Cardinals great. No playoffs.

1995
No playoffs

1996
Dave Shula era blessedly ends. No playoffs.

1997-2004
See years 83-87 but LONGER.

As you can see, I’m not optimistic about the way things are going. Even if the Bengals did somehow make it to the Super Bowl, Joe Montana would inevitably come out of his busy retirement of hawking Mervyn’s merchandise and crush us all quickly.

This is why we’re going to lose

Posted on September 24th, 2005 in agony of being a bengals fan by Niko || 27 Comments

Dear media, please immediately stop writing slobbering love notes like this. I know you want to french kiss Marvin Lewis for not making the Bengals laughingstock of the AFC this season, but really. We’re only two games into the season. Get a grip and save the wine, roses and slow massage for when he leads us to the Super Bowl. You’re embarrassing me.

Now I’m a believer

Posted on September 22nd, 2005 in carson palmer by panzer || 98 Comments

Here’s a fact that will blow your mind: Carson Palmer has thrown for more yards this season than every other QB in the league.

Two weeks into the 2005, and he has already managed to impress us all by not spectacularly imploding, which is a huge (albeit nice) surprise. Granted, having more TDs than INTs would be considered favorable in this town, but Carson has achieved an amazing 617 yards thrown, 5 touchdowns, and has a cumulative QB rating of 107.8. More importantly his team is 2-0. It’s too early for accurate predictions, but if they keep this style of play up they will have a chance to win the division over the Steelers, or secure a wild card spot at the very least (now I’m in fantasy land as the defense and/or flagrant penalties will inevitably ruin all chances of success).

I’m not the only one who has been dumbstruck by this sudden and profound change in Carson Palmer. Here’s what some famous voices from the trenches have to say about his recent performance:

“Carson Palmer is quickly developing into a great quarterback.” -Vinnie Iyer

“Palmer has been one of the two best quarterbacks in the league to start the season.” -Michael Fabiano

“Two games into his second season as Bengals starter, Carson Palmer arrived as an elite quarterback - and an early-season MVP candidate… Palmer is the fast-maturing quarterback who has greatly elevated his game.” -Jim Corbett

“Things are looking up in Cincinnati, and Carson Palmer is a big reason why.” -Andrew Pema
“While not exactly a bum last season, Palmer appears to be on the verge of stardom.” -Randy Hill

“Carson Palmer has arrived, and this team isn’t going away.” -Mark Maske

“Palmer is taking his game to another level.” -Joe Kay
“Carson Palmer is on fire right now. Am I’m a whore to the entertainment industry.” -Bill Simmons
Praise heaped on a Cincinnati player? Are we in bizarre world?

Does 2-0 Mean Anything?

Posted on September 21st, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || 88 Comments

The Bengals are now 2-0 after besting the Browns and whipping the hapless, helpless, and hopeless Vikings. So, what can we say for sure about our team? Well, not much…yet.

Psychologically it’s nice that the hurdle of not winning an opening road game since something like 1995 or so is over with. And now that the Bengals are 2-0 the likelihood of the slow starts they’ve pulled the past two seasons seems less and less of a possibility. The 2005 Cincinnati Bengals are good, but how good?

This week Cincy goes to Chicago to face the Bears, and then after that the wreck that is the Houston Texans come to town. I will admit to some nervousness about the Bears game, but truthfully there is absolutely no reason why Cincinnati shouldn’t be 4-0 going in to their first tough game at Jacksonville. It’s that Week 5 matchup that is going to tell us a lot about what kind of team we’ve got.

As it stands now we have an undefeated team that has at least proven it is above last year’s performance by getting off to the 2-0 start. The offense is clicking with Carson Palmer leading the NFL in passing yards (with Trent Dilfer second?!), CJ ranking fourth in receiving yards, and Rudi placing fifth in rushing yards gained. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone with what we all saw at the end of last year. We have a top-shelf quarterback, first receiver, second receiver, and running back. That’s a two-pronged attack that is going to be difficult for any defense to go against.

And then we come to the other side of the ball - the defense. So far the grade is passing, but given the competition that isn’t much to brag about. The Browns are…well…the Browns, although they managed to pick up a good running back in Ruben Droughns. Who, now that I mention it, ran over the defense for 78 yards on only 12 carries. That’s 6.5 yards a touch, folks, and that ain’t good. It also didn’t improve in Week 2 when Michael Bennett touched the ball three times and picked up 36 yards for his troubles. That average is too scary to calculate, although the math is real easy. Had the offense not put up massive points quickly forcing the Vikings to pass, he could have had a career day (his two fumbles probably didn’t help his case for more touches in the eyes of Mike Tice, either). At least Mewelde Moore was held to 8 for 29. But still, what I would argue was the biggest defensive problem from last year remains unsolved.

One aspect of the defense that certainly has improved, on paper at least, is that opposing offenses have been limited to 21 points over two weeks, with eight of that total coming in garbage time at the end of the Vikings game. You could call it the “bend-but-don’t-break” philosophy, and you might be right if the two teams already taken down didn’t have such inept offenses. The defense has done merely what it should have done given the competition on the other side of the ball. We’ll see how that stingy scoring mantra holds up once the Colts arrive at Paul Brown on November 20.

We don’t know how good the Bengals are as a team yet, and for the next two weeks all they can do is disappoint. We’ll all have to wait until the drama unfolds on October 9 at 8:30 PM.

Bengals Fantasy Season 2005

Posted on September 10th, 2005 in fantasy, carson palmer by panzer || 23 Comments

So the first game of the season is in the bag. Go Bengals!

We feel that it’s a little too early in the season to start talking about strategy or failure since hilarious uncertainty currently rules the day in the league (Miami routed Denver? San Francisco beat St. Louis? New Orleans won? We live on the moon!). Thus, we will instead take this time to opine upon a subject that has mercilessly been beaten to death by every analyst ever during the past two months: Fantasy Football.

Most of the advice out there regarding fantasy football is either stupidly obvious (”draft a good RB”) or patently wrong (”Jake Plummer should be your starting QB”) so there really is no reason to take our advice over that of a so-called football “expert.” We only do this for fun, after all. Still, we’ve examined all the facts, done the calculations, and determined that if you draft some Bengals players for your fantasy team you will probably end up doing “okay” in your league.

It’s a bold assertion, I know. Let’s scientifically break this down by position:

Quarterback

Sleeper is the word on the street when it comes to starting Bengals QB Carson Palmer. Palmer was 26 for 34 against Cleveland last Sunday, with 2 TDs and 1 interception, which adds up to a quarterback rating of 107.5. Nice, but remember, this was against Cleveland. A more impressive stat is Palmer’s average QB rating for his last four games going back to last season - 113.7! Those are solid Kurt Warner-type numbers from his “sold-his-soul-to-the-devil-in-exchange-for-football-prowess” era not his “benched-in-favor-of-Eli-freaking-Manning” era.

Although Palmer’s career average QB rating hovers in the basement just under 80, he has clearly been an unusual streak of “being good” lately. It remains to be seen if this improvement is real and here to stay, rather than a cruel fluke of fate. Most “experts” subscribe to the Joey Harrington theory and predict that Palmer is going to have a breakout season this year simply because it’s his third season in the league and gosh, he probably should be getting better right about now. Remember, though; this is called the Joey Harrington theory for a reason so we’re not betting the farm on any real improvement from Palmer until his numbers get more consistent.

John Kitna - Although he is on the roster, Kitna really has no fantasy value except in the God’s Squad Fantasy League.

Wide Receiver

To some extent Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh find their fate resting in the lily-white hands of Carson Palmer. His development as a decent passing QB this season will directly impact what sort of numbers his wide receivers put up on the board. Houshmandzadeh is an improving receiver, although he is still not worthy of being started in most leagues. Johnson, however, is a top-five receiver as long as he can keep his mouth shut and doesn’t piss off the wrong defensive lineman. Yes, I know, there is something to be said for having spunk and spirit, but there’s also something to be said for not making a goddamned fool out of yourself. Pepto Bismol, anyone?

Kicker

Let’s face it - kickers are next to worthless in most fantasy leagues. Which is a bit of a shame because Shayne Graham is actually a pretty decent kicker. Whatever meager points he manages to accumulate will depend on how Palmer and Johnson do in getting the ball down the field and into the end-zone to set up the kick. If they do well, Graham will put a few extra points on the board for your fantasy team. If they do poorlyï¿½ well, so you miss a few extra points, no big deal (assuming you aren’t an idiot and didn’t draft an all-Bengal team. And if you did, I’m sure your losses will be plenty even before their bye in Week 10. Idiot).

Defense

Bengals? Defense? Let’s not even go here.

Running Back

And finally, the most important position in most fantasy leagues: the running back. Rudi Johnson is a premiere running back who should be even better this year than in 2004. That is, as long as he gets plenty of playing time and stops violating team rules. Seriously, what the hell, Rudi.

What does this all mean? Well, it’s safe to say that Carson Palmer is the lynchpin for the entire Bengals offense; all the fantasy stats of the other players will directly depend on how he progresses as a QB. If Palmer does indeed have a breakout season then the point production of receivers, kicker, and running back will be much, much higher. The defense will also be positively affected; the more downs Palmer gets, the longer he keeps his offense on the field and the more the defense can rest.

So now it’s a waiting game. Our fate, as well as the production of our fantasy Bengals players, are in the possibly-capable hands of Carson Palmer.

Crap.

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