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Mr. Fantasy

Posted on November 13th, 2005 in fantasy, carson palmer by panzer || 22 Comments

We’re halfway through the regular season and it’s the off week for the Bengals, a time for rest and reflection.

I’ll preface this short post by saying that I probably wouldn’t ever classify myself as a “true” Bengals fan. I’m not from Cincinnati and I have no deep, emotional connection with the team. I’ve always pulled for the underdog, though, and I have always thought that it would be great if the Bengals won the Super Bowl. That being said, my interest in the Bengals is mostly that of an outsider and the only real impact their performance has for me is how well they perform for my fantasy team (although I suppose if they go to the Super Bowl this site will get substantially more traffic which is good.

This year I selected Carson Palmer as my quarterback in my fantasy league. I nabbed him in the third round, which has been proven thus far to be a very wise decision. While he’s yet to break 30 FFPts/G, Palmer has been very consistent in his weekly performances. His fantasy performance has consistently been better than Peyton Manning (our league’s first pick) and it’s definitely been on par with Donovan McNabb.

Only Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady have compiled more passing yards than Palmer (with far more attempts at that), and his QB rating blows them out of the water. More importantly, Palmer is surrounded by a better offense environment that McNabb and Brady. The Eagles have their own hilariously distracting problems to deal with and the Pats have been struggling with injuries all over the place. Who knew, intangibles really do count for something. All this adds up to one conclusion: Carson Palmer is currently the most valuable fantasy quarterback. Amazing!

Back in September, in my first post here I speculated on the fantasy value of the Bengals and came to the conclusion that “Carson Palmer is the lynchpin for the entire Bengals offense; all the fantasy stats of the other players will directly depend on how he progresses as a QB.” I was pretty dour as to the outcome at the time. I’m willing to admit now that I was dead wrong. Palmer is proving himself to be a very capable quarterback and I’m glad he’s on my team.

I’m sorry true Bengals fans. I don’t think Bengals are really going to make it to the Super Bowl this year; in the years to come, yes, but not now. That’s a fact. At the very least, with Carson Palmer leading my team, I stand a chance of making it to the fantasy Super Bowl this year.

Bengals Fantasy Season 2005

Posted on September 10th, 2005 in fantasy, carson palmer by panzer || 23 Comments

So the first game of the season is in the bag. Go Bengals!

We feel that it’s a little too early in the season to start talking about strategy or failure since hilarious uncertainty currently rules the day in the league (Miami routed Denver? San Francisco beat St. Louis? New Orleans won? We live on the moon!). Thus, we will instead take this time to opine upon a subject that has mercilessly been beaten to death by every analyst ever during the past two months: Fantasy Football.

Most of the advice out there regarding fantasy football is either stupidly obvious (”draft a good RB”) or patently wrong (”Jake Plummer should be your starting QB”) so there really is no reason to take our advice over that of a so-called football “expert.” We only do this for fun, after all. Still, we’ve examined all the facts, done the calculations, and determined that if you draft some Bengals players for your fantasy team you will probably end up doing “okay” in your league.

It’s a bold assertion, I know. Let’s scientifically break this down by position:

Quarterback

Sleeper is the word on the street when it comes to starting Bengals QB Carson Palmer. Palmer was 26 for 34 against Cleveland last Sunday, with 2 TDs and 1 interception, which adds up to a quarterback rating of 107.5. Nice, but remember, this was against Cleveland. A more impressive stat is Palmer’s average QB rating for his last four games going back to last season - 113.7! Those are solid Kurt Warner-type numbers from his “sold-his-soul-to-the-devil-in-exchange-for-football-prowess” era not his “benched-in-favor-of-Eli-freaking-Manning” era.

Although Palmer’s career average QB rating hovers in the basement just under 80, he has clearly been an unusual streak of “being good” lately. It remains to be seen if this improvement is real and here to stay, rather than a cruel fluke of fate. Most “experts” subscribe to the Joey Harrington theory and predict that Palmer is going to have a breakout season this year simply because it’s his third season in the league and gosh, he probably should be getting better right about now. Remember, though; this is called the Joey Harrington theory for a reason so we’re not betting the farm on any real improvement from Palmer until his numbers get more consistent.

John Kitna - Although he is on the roster, Kitna really has no fantasy value except in the God’s Squad Fantasy League.

Wide Receiver

To some extent Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh find their fate resting in the lily-white hands of Carson Palmer. His development as a decent passing QB this season will directly impact what sort of numbers his wide receivers put up on the board. Houshmandzadeh is an improving receiver, although he is still not worthy of being started in most leagues. Johnson, however, is a top-five receiver as long as he can keep his mouth shut and doesn’t piss off the wrong defensive lineman. Yes, I know, there is something to be said for having spunk and spirit, but there’s also something to be said for not making a goddamned fool out of yourself. Pepto Bismol, anyone?

Kicker

Let’s face it - kickers are next to worthless in most fantasy leagues. Which is a bit of a shame because Shayne Graham is actually a pretty decent kicker. Whatever meager points he manages to accumulate will depend on how Palmer and Johnson do in getting the ball down the field and into the end-zone to set up the kick. If they do well, Graham will put a few extra points on the board for your fantasy team. If they do poorlyï¿½ well, so you miss a few extra points, no big deal (assuming you aren’t an idiot and didn’t draft an all-Bengal team. And if you did, I’m sure your losses will be plenty even before their bye in Week 10. Idiot).

Defense

Bengals? Defense? Let’s not even go here.

Running Back

And finally, the most important position in most fantasy leagues: the running back. Rudi Johnson is a premiere running back who should be even better this year than in 2004. That is, as long as he gets plenty of playing time and stops violating team rules. Seriously, what the hell, Rudi.

What does this all mean? Well, it’s safe to say that Carson Palmer is the lynchpin for the entire Bengals offense; all the fantasy stats of the other players will directly depend on how he progresses as a QB. If Palmer does indeed have a breakout season then the point production of receivers, kicker, and running back will be much, much higher. The defense will also be positively affected; the more downs Palmer gets, the longer he keeps his offense on the field and the more the defense can rest.

So now it’s a waiting game. Our fate, as well as the production of our fantasy Bengals players, are in the possibly-capable hands of Carson Palmer.

Crap.